EB-2 PD Line

In my free time, I often study USCIS statistics. Recently, I decided to calculate an approximate queue for EB-2 and EB-3 categories using the data I have from USCIS.

At the moment, I excluded backlog countries (India and China), conducted my research, and focused solely on ROW (Rest of World) applications for EB-2.

  1. The PERM applications issued over two quarters are small, and I also added an estimate for those who haven't yet received their PERM but are likely to get it soon. This helps in calculating an approximate priority date (PD) and the number of people.
  2. I based this on an educational sample. However, keep in mind that not everyone has relevant education, and many applications might still fall under EB-3 instead of EB-2. However, I am confident this is within the margin of error. Everyone in my table with a Master's, Bachelor's, or Ph.D. likely has relevant education and can qualify for EB-2 PERM.

Certified
Q1 – Q4 PERM 2024

  • Total: 35,505
  • Total India + China: 19,189
  • Total ROW: 16,316 (EB-2 + EB-3)

ROW EB-2 PERM Certified

  • BS + MS + Ph.D.: 6,853

ROW EB-2 PERM Certified

NIW row

  1. I also calculated EB-2 NIW, which you can see in Screenshot
  2. I cannot precisely calculate how many approvals per quarter fall under a specific PD. However, we can estimate approximate PD based on received dates, which are accurately listed in the table.
  3. We do not know the exact index of dependents for I-140 cases, but historically, it has been approximately 1.1.
  4. We also cannot confirm that all pending NIW cases will have a PD in the future, as the approval rate is declining and denials are increasing.
  5. Furthermore, not all approved I-140 cases will lead to green card filings. Many individuals choose not to file their I-140 for various reasons (e.g., getting approval under EB-1 and skipping EB-2).
  6. It’s important to note that the NVC often sends applicants for administrative processing, which can take more than 6–12 months, delaying the issuance of green cards.
  7. I subtracted an approximate number of denials for ROW cases because USCIS does not specify the number of denials per country. However, I am confident that it is at least 1,000-1,500 per quarter for ROW.

Pending all world – 57292 (https://eb-timeline.space/analytics

Pending for all – 57292 (eb-2) from here eb-timeline.space/analytics
BUT for eb-2 row its TOTAL 22, 248 +-

I don’t remember how USCIS currently calculates the 7% cap, but they may revise it soon.

  • Brazil has 36,565 approved I-140 applications across EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories (over 4 incomplete quarters; USCIS has yet to finalize the table, and it differs slightly).
    • EB-1: 10,276
    • EB-2: 15,541
    • EB-3: 10,746
    • (Without dependents

BRAZIL

This suggests that if the 7% rule is revised again, Brazil may receive a separate allocation.

If we analyze the queue solely based on I-140 filings for a specific quarter, considering newly received cases that remain pending but have a queue date (PD), here's the breakdown:

PD Date for NIW + PERM EB-2 (I-140):

  • less PD < ---July --> September 2023: 11,400
  • October --> December 2023: 10,488
  • January --> March 2024: 12,616
  • April --> June 2024: 8,949
  • July --> September 2024: 13,309
  • TOTAL 56762

PD Date for NIW + PERM EB-2 (I-140):

Additional Notes:

  • India and China will receive their 7% annual cap. + ROW
  • Dependents are not accounted for in this calculation.
  • Individuals who ultimately decide not to file I-140 are also excluded.

If Brazil is excluded from the Rest of World (ROW) category in the EB preference system, it could provide some relief to the backlog and help reduce wait times.

If new President takes any actions regarding FB (family-based) visas this year, it could once again result in additional unused quotas being reallocated to employment-based categories.

This year is shaping up to be chaotic and, quite possibly, full of surprises.

This is my personal analysis and should not be taken as absolute truth.
*If you have any questions or feedback, I’d be happy to hear them!*In my free time, I often study USCIS statistics. Recently, I decided to calculate an approximate queue for EB-2 and EB-3 categories using the data I have from USCIS.