Possible ways of how Aqua could act (Reflections on the Ideal Plan)

I think it would be unnecessary to talk about how stupid and illogical the ending of "Oshi No Ko" is. To be honest, when I read the ending at first I didn't bother myself thinking about its issues, but when I actually analyzed it I finally realized how much depended on luck and bad luck factors, as well as the stupidity of the characters (Hello, Aqua)

In this post I will write most of my thoughts on other ways, Aqua could follow, and why some of events were just luck-stupid-based.

1. The conclusion of "15 years of lie" movie arc.

They released a film exposing Kamiki as an organizer of Ai's murder. Ok, a dubious plan, but it turned out to be working. There were two possible outcomes:

  • Kamiki could just ignore it (The least possible variant): There was a possibility of Kamiki simply ignoring the movie (It's unlikely to be accidental, but rather intentional). As I Just said, this variant is the least like to happen, as the movie may have a huge impact on Kamiki's reputation, so there was no way he would ignore its release
  • Kamiki would try to deny this or claim that it is slander against him (The most possible and logical variant): He could potentially claim that his son is just taking revenge for not caring about him. Also he could claim that he simply did not know that Ai had children from him, especially since Ai hid the identity of Aqua and Ruby's father from everyone. This behavior is perfectly in the spirit of Kamiki's character who has been hiding from justice for 15 years and plotting intrigues from which he came out clean every time. Even Aqua's squad has no direct evidence against him.

The result that we actually got (Kamiki had a conversation with Aqua) has opened the ways for such patterns of behavior Aqua could actually follow:

  • Aqua could simply record Kamiki's confession of murder and simply go to police with the recording of their conversation. This may not be enough to convict Kamiki, but it would be enough to at least start an investigation into him.
  • Aqua would not trust Kamiki's promise to surrender to the police voluntarily, and at least could accompany him to make sure of it. Even if smart and calculating Aqua, always thinking two steps ahead, SOMEHOW didn't think of recording the entire conversation between him and Kamiki, he could actually make sure that Kamiki goes to police and surrenders, after he openly promises it to Aqua.

2. The Failed Assassination Attempt on Ruby.

Are you going to believe in the fact of Kamiki trying to pull an assasination attempt on Ruby SO SHORTLY after conversation with Aqua? How stupid of Kamiki would it be? Why wouldn't he wait a bit more, so he doesn't provoke Aqua this quickly? Also, regardless of the outcome (whether Ruby got killed or not), he would inevitably draw suspicion. Aqua could claim that Ruby experienced an assassination attempt immediately after his conversation with Kamiki, which would make Kamiki suspicious. They even got Nino as a performer and witness. This would also be a great push to start investigation (Come on, Aqua, police exists for a reason, you know?)

3. The murder of Kamiki by Aqua (Most possible and safe variants)

We got an impulsive plan of murder-suicide. The peak of stupidity. Even if smart and calculating Aqua, always thinking two steps ahead, somehow managed to miss the opportunities mentioned above and still decided to commit the murder-suicide, there were lots of possible outcomes, in which he managed to stay alive.

Akane was devoted to him, body and soul. She was literally ready to sacrifice herself for him, even to kill Kamiki herself, just so that Aqua would not be affected by consequences. But fatalism could have been avoided if one of the following options had been chosen by Aqua:

  • Bring Akane along as a witness (Option 1). Let's face it, it was actually idiotic of Aqua to go alone without any help. He could bring Akane as a witness, stab himself and drop himself and Kamiki into the water. Aqua would make sure that Kamiki is dead and Akane would save Aqua. In the police she would as a witness tell, that Kamiki attacked Aqua and Aqua was just defending himself (Still dubious, but it's the best I could make up about alternating the ending)
  • Bring Akane along as a witness (Option 2). Even considering that Aqua was a doctor in his past life, it was practically impossible to stab himself with a knife without a forensic examination finding that Aqua had stabbed himself, and not Kamiki stabbing him instead. Aqua could have asked Akane to stab him, so that it would be at least somewhat convincing. He could have shown her where to stab him to simply wound him, and then again, have her save him. And preferably, she would have pulled out Kamiki's body as well.

I'm not saying these options would be perfect, but if we take the outcome with Kamiki drowning, these are the most successful options I could come up with.

TL;DR: Kamiki acted stupidly, and the reason why the movie plan worked, was just luck. Aqua had a lot of space to create a perfect plan, but he forgot about the existence of Police and Akane.