How will Wisconsin trend over the coming years?

With the exception of Obama's convincing wins in the state in 2008 and 2012, Wisconsin has consistently been extremely close. Every presidential election without Obama on the ballot since 2000 in WI has been decided within a point. 2024 was no exception, with Trump winning the state by approximately 0.8%. In 2016 and 2020, WI voted to the right of MI and PA, but in 2024, WI was the bluest of the rust belt swing state trio. Trump improved in most rural and urban areas, but actually did worse than 2020 in the suburban WOW counties and in the former bellwether Door County.

WI is a bit of an oddity in that younger voters are more Republican than older ones. The state has a lot of older, union Democrats that seem unwilling to vote Republican, despite being in rural areas. Republicans have room to grow in the rurals, while Democrats have room to grow in the WOW suburbs.

Personally I think WI is stagnant overall, but could trend right slightly if the WOW left trend is just a Trump thing. I think Wisconsin will be a key swing state for at least the next decade.