The Substance is STILL Fantastic, and Why I Think It Could MAYBE Defy Odds EVEN MORE at the Oscars

5 months ago, I made a post with a similar title and my Oscar prospects for The Substance after watching it in September. Long story short, I predicted it for nominations in Lead Actress, Makeup + Hairstyling, and Original Screenplay. I said it was on the outside looking in for Director/Screenplay, and when "The Life of Chuck" was announced for 2025, I put it in. Even then, I didn't expect techs or Qualley, so there's some credibility for this wild take your about to read.

I think Anora will win (more on that later), but I want to lay out the path for this film to WIN Best Picture at the Oscars. If it can win the same 3 awards tonight at the Oscars, it will have a great package of the recent acting win + director/screenplay. I can't believe I'm saying this, but Demi seems like a lock for the win (granted she sweeps) and same with makeup.

Here's why I think Original Screenplay may not be a fluke. The CC has a mixed reputation. I mean they gave Chu director, so many dismiss their decisions. However, they have gone against the presumed frontrunner in the Screenplay category for the eventual winner a few times. They went for EEAAO, PYW, and Get Out over Banshees, Chicago 7, and Three Billboards. American Fiction and Jojo Rabbit got wins here after Globe screenplay snubs. PYW and Get Out are especially similar in that their films are clearly promoting a social issue.

The Substance will have to overcome "gross" to win, but it has been doing very well with Moore's success. Moore in the CC speech, didn't ignore the genre bias against the film and instead embraced it and created reason to vote for the film even more. She also has been talking about the films themes of "getting rid of the measuring stick" and is articulating perfectly why this film should be recognized further.

THE COMPETITION

I don't think Conclave has enough 1 votes to pull through and is shaping to be more 3-5 votes than 1-3. Emilia Perez, likely not winning either. I heard the room was silent and it's making me scared for Zoe even though I've been predicting her to sweep. That leaves Anora and The Brutalist.

Since I saw it in October, I have never believed in The Brutalist winning due to similarities to PotD and Roma. Even after Globes, I didn't waver and SAG snubs is keeping me grounded. 1917 was the achievement film of the year and won GG, PGA, DGA, and BAFTA which The Brutalist could also do. Brady Corbet is not as established as his competition and not the most compelling speaker either. Moore has been very inspirational and Corbet is "thank you.... give final cut to directors guys". So if the film doesn't have the passion to win Picture, then I don't see Director. Since 1980 (I stopped looking after a certain point), 41/44 winners have been nominated for directing previously OR have won Best Picture if they hadn't. 3/44 were Soderbergh, Cuaron, and Chazelle and they were previously nominated for Screenplay. Being new to the game will hurt him and is evident by the fact that Critics Choice didn't go for him despite him being the Critics leader. Like A Real Pain missing the lineup, it is not a good look.

So Anora... I may give this the edge to win. On the preferential ballot, The Substance may receive many 1-3 votes, but also 8-10 votes. And people who like The Substance may like Anora more. My safe choice is that Anora wins by somehow being the more accessible pick as the Cinderella Sex Story film rather than Fading Hollywood Star Body Horror Satire.

So to summarize, I think Anora will win Picture + Director (maybe Editing) which might be a strange package but this season is already entering unprescented territory.

However, I think The Substance will win Actress Screenplay, and Makeup and Hairstyling with a chance to win Director/Picture. It's weird how familiar this sounds to my most from 5 months ago. Regardless of what happens, I'm happy for the success of The Substance so far.